The GOP Convention is in the books and the right wing has spoken. Not very loud and clear mind you, but they have made a decision all the same, to run with Donald Trump as the candidate of choice.
After this announcement at Trump’s acceptance speech at the end of the yawnfest/convention, Trump got the customary blip in the polls which knocked him up to more or less within striking distance of Hillary Clinton.
Of course, the Democratic Convention starts in a couple of days and Hillary will get her customary blip, so, on balance, not much will have really changed.
But right now there are a lot more people than there were last week living in a state of terror about what will happen to the world should Donald Trump actually win the election and become president.
But not me. No way, Jose.
Trump’s Losing The Election Is Almost As Good As His Winning It
Here’s the deal as I see it.
If Trump loses, and it’s probably not going to be by a hell of a lot the way things are shaping up, his supporters will be encouraged to shrug and say, ‘Well, we fought the good fight, and we’ll be even more unified in 2020.’
And nothing about the Republican party that needs to change will change. Because it will still remain too far right for a country that purports to be a true democracy.
In other words they will not be discouraged and think about cleaning up their party and stop acting like they really want to live in the kind of fascist state that a Trump dictatorship appears to define for them.
However…if he wins, that is really the best case scenario.
Why? Because at the end of the day, there’s not much more to Trump than what you see pontificating on the stage.
He may run a large private company. He may know how to make real estate deals, that really amount to mostly just screwing people over. And he may even do a decent job of anything he can completely control. Although he hasn’t necessarily proven that either.
But government is a whole different bag of snakes.
Because no matter how much Trump tells people he is going to do, he still has to get the congressional and senate support to get it into law, obtain a budget for it and do all kinds of diplomatic juggling and compromising that, from all indications, he doesn’t have the slightest idea how to do or the temperament to handle.
Rhubarb. Rhubarb. Rhubarb
We have already heard huge rumblings of discontent from the military who will not obey the kind of illegal orders Trump will bark at them regarding ISIS and other terrorist groups.
We have heard from an esteemed supreme court judge, who thinks Trump is a moron.
We have already heard from smart people doing the math on his immigration policies and the famous Mexican wall. The former would be impossible to implement and the latter would bankrupt the country.
We have heard subtle murmurs of mutiny from sitting senators and congressmen who are terrified of losing their seats in this election, because the machinery is not in place to support their re-election bids.
We have heard from several people who are really close to Trump, including his ghostwriter, who believe he is a fraud and only out to build his personal brand.
We have heard from world leaders expressing their concern that their diplomatic and trading relationships with America will be thrown into such disarray that a world wide depression could ensue.
It seems like every day some new quarter is heard from. And Trump hasn’t even gotten nose to nose with the Democrats yet.
The Potential Monkey Wrench In The Gears
The one group that has been quiet up to now, and probably won’t be heard from in any substantial way, is the federal bureaucracy. These are the people who make everything happen. And these are the people who can slow the wheels of government to a grinding halt if they really want to.
Many of them, especially the more tenured, have every reason to be fearful. A Trump presidency would reshape the entire bureaucratic structure and throw the country into a deep turmoil that would take pretty much Trump’s first term to resolve, assuming he even knows how to do that.
So even if a fraction of everything I have just said and a whole lot that I haven’t, happens, Mr Trump will find himself at the bottom of a deep dark hole.
And this could happen very quickly I might add. Especially if he is up against a Democratic controlled congress and senate, which is a very real possibility since more and more people are starting to understand that current obstruction-obsessed congress and senate is the real root cause of many of the problems America is having.
No one knows how Mr Trump will react, but the chances of him making it through a first term, are, in my opinion, very slim. And even is he does somehow manage to hang on, how much will he actually be able to get done with the temperament and ego that he possesses.
Doesn’t Sound Like Much Of A Best Case Scenario, Jim
In the objective sense, it’s not. But if this does happen and Trump is either impeached, forced to step down, even does so voluntarily ie hangs in an makes a total mess of it all, the Republicans will be saying to themselves, ‘Well that was a bust, maybe we need to get back to our old centre right posture.’
And honestly, nothing screws democracies faster than than extremism. We’re watching it happen right now.
The Republican party is in a complete shambles. They have a leader who is more an anarchist than a Republican and who does not enjoy unilateral support. They are having trouble mobilizing support for the various state, senate and congress races that are also taking place. And they are suffering a fairly substantial donation deficit precisely because of Mr Trump.
I’ve been fascinated with US politics since Kennedy’s time. It is a complex and mind blowingly insane process.
The ego of one man who thinks he can change this all simply by barking commands, is something I have never seen before. None of us have.
I really do believe that the core of Trump’s popularity is the conservative controlled electronic media that has been covering him 24/7 and have imbued him with an icon status that he has done nothing to earn.
Yes it will be a sad day for America if Trump gets elected president. But it will also, hopefully be the shot upside the head that country needs to finally wake up.